PTGR – Strategic Digital Asset Management


APRIL 2022

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Dear valuable clients,

We aim to present you on a monthly basis some key insights which might be
helpful for you.

Overall take-home message:

The crypto markets have seen an impressive upward move last month.
The overall momentum and various indicators have turned positive for April. Nonetheless, with rather bearish signals coming from the US treasury markets and the US dollar trending up, risk-on cryptocurrency investors should exercise caution. It is also never wrong to seek professional assistance for challenging periods like these.

1) What happened last month?

The largest crypto asset Bitcoin had quite a month in March. After successfully rallying off the lows below $40k, a short squeeze abruptly took the cryptocurrency to $44k. As expected in our last report, Bitcoin then went on attempting to break out of the resistance zone around $45.6k and succeeded in pushing through it. One of the drivers behind this move was the rebounding of traditional equities. As a matter of fact, Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 has been trending up again to reach a 17-month high towards the end of March. And the 3 months correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq is 0.61. Apart from the correlation to (risk-on)  equities, the Luna Foundation buying Bitcoin for their UST stablecoin reserve has acted as another price driver. As of now, the reserve holds 35,767.98 Bitcoin. Despite these two drivers and the push past the $45.6k resistance level, Bitcoin did run into another huge resistance at around $48k, which the crypto asset could not clear. Consequently, the expected move to $52k did not materialize.

2) Where do we stand?

Currently, Bitcoin is fighting to hold support around the $44k range. Some traders hope for Bitcoin to hold $44.2k, while others believe that the pivotal level is $44,5k, or else the cryptocurrency could take another nosedive. A positive sign we are seeing is that funding rates have been consistently low compared to last year’s highs indicating rather y quiet derivative markets. Another positive sign is shown by the fact that strong hands have been feverishly accumulating Bitcoin. This can be deduced from an on-chain metric measuring illiquid supply change, which has been consistently increasing over the course of the last months. 

3) Outlook: What could happen?

On the negative side, it is the US treasuries markets that don’t seem to be going in the favor of Bitcoin and risk-on assets in general. Bonds yields have been on the rise with Treasury futures getting dumped relentlessly. Also, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is on the verge of reaching 100 – a level that if breached could signal a dollar move to new highs. This would certainly disfavor risk-on assets. But if Bitcoin holds $44,5k, then a move to $50k could very well be possible. If not, the cryptocurrency could be revisiting $38k once again this month. But the general market fear and bearish sentiment that has been growing since the beginning of April can also be interpreted as a sign that the gloomy expectations will not materialize. This could mean that the $42k to $44k range could turn out to be a good target to load up on altcoins that have retraced significantly while Bitcoin was chopping down during the last few days.

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Thank you for your support.
We wish you all a Happy Easter!