PTGR OCTOBER HIGHLIGHTS
Dear valuable clients,
Please find the following key insights from our aggregated research:
Overall Take-Home Message:
As September drew to a close, Bitcoin positioned itself with a compelling finish below the $27,275 benchmark, laying the groundwork for what many in the crypto circle term ‘Uptober’ – a month often associated with bullish patterns.
Crucial Price Markers to Watch:
Bitcoin seems to be sandwiched between the robust $23,400 support level, established in March, and the yet-to-be-touched resistance at $35,000. This range has provided a clear trading framework recently.
October’s Potential Outcomes:
Given the current pulse of the market, we might witness two possible pathways for Bitcoin:
A brief dip to the $23,400 support followed by a leap aiming for the $35,000 resistance.
A direct and positive momentum towards the $23,400 floor, pushing Bitcoin in the direction of the $35,000 ceiling sooner than anticipated.
The Market’s Current Pulse:
The prevailing sentiment appears to be favoring the latter scenario. Recent data illustrates Bitcoin breaking away from its prior downtrend, and short-term metrics further support this optimistic stance. Historically, October’s bullish undertones combined with these elements suggest a ripe climate for a potential climb to $35,000. Leading analysts, such as Mags, echo this sentiment, foreseeing that reaching this pivotal $35,000 mark could set off an even stronger bullish trend in the crypto sphere.
While the prospects for a buoyant October appear strong, especially with the $35,000 target in sight, crypto enthusiasts should approach with prudence. Always remember, the crypto arena is marked by its volatility and the unexpected. The insights offered here provide a glimpse into potential pathways based on current market behavior and past trends. As always, thorough research and informed decisions are paramount.
NEWS UPDATE OVERVIEW
1) What happened in September?
September was an eventful month in the crypto world, filled with notable ups and downs, regulatory shifts, and intriguing market reactions. Here’s a comprehensive breakdown:
Historical Tendencies of Bitcoin (BTC) in September: As has been the case historically, September was characterized by its volatility for Bitcoin. The prominent digital currency exhibited a somewhat subdued performance, oscillating between $25,000 and $27,000. It rounded off the month at a respectable $27,155, marking a 5.1% monthly increase. Yet, this subdued monthly performance is in stark contrast to Bitcoin’s year-to-date surge of 63.3%.
Major Cryptocurrencies’ Performance Review:
Bitcoin & Ethereum: These two giants led the market, with Ethereum trailing slightly behind Bitcoin’s 5.1% with its own 3.0% gain.
Solana (SOL): Stealing the spotlight, Solana recorded an impressive 18.9% leap, making it the star performer among major cryptocurrencies.
Dogecoin (DOGE): Facing a mild setback, Dogecoin dipped by 1.5%, making it September’s least impressive performer among the top 10 by market cap.
SEC’s Prolonged Deliberation Over Spot Bitcoin ETF: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) added another layer of anticipation by postponing decisions on several Bitcoin spot ETF proposals from powerhouses such as Arkk Invest, GlobalX, and BlackRock to January 2024. This delay persisted despite the SEC’s past approval of multiple cryptocurrency futures ETFs. Their hesitancy primarily stems from longstanding concerns dating back to 2013 regarding potential market manipulations and fraud risks linked to spot ETFs.
Congress Voices its Opinion on Bitcoin ETFs: Congressional representatives, including notable figures like Tom Emmer and Ritchie Torres, publicly urged the SEC to start greenlighting spot Bitcoin ETFs. Their message was clear: Congress oversees the SEC, and the SEC should therefore adhere to the standards and expectations set by the legislative body.
The Binance Quandary:
Troubles Abound: As the world’s predominant crypto exchange, Binance found itself amidst a storm. Its challenges were exemplified by a massive 70% dip in U.S. revenue.
Regulatory Issues: Multiple investigations from heavyweights like the SEC and the Department of Justice compounded Binance’s difficulties, casting a shadow on its future.
The SEC & Ripple Continue Their Dance: Ripple’s ongoing courtroom drama with the SEC saw more developments, with the SEC attempting to overturn a previous court decision from July. This ruling had stated that Ripple’s XRP doesn’t qualify as a security.
Global Crypto Events:
U.S. Policy on CBDC: House Republicans in the U.S. pitched a new bill to stop the Federal Reserve from releasing a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), citing privacy and surveillance concerns.
JPMorgan’s UK Stance: In a move to curb crypto-related fraud, JPMorgan’s Chase UK decided to ban crypto transactions via debit cards from October 16.
Judgment in Turkey: In a monumental verdict, Thodex’s founder, Faruk Fatih Özer, was sentenced to 11,196 years in prison in Turkey due to his involvement in a scandal that resulted in a $2 billion loss back in 2021.
Economic Landscape & Crypto: The Federal Reserve’s indications about prolonged higher interest rates posed significant implications for crypto entities. This potentially exerts more strain on crypto firms, especially given the increased borrowing costs they’ve been grappling with.
Withdrawals in the Market: A telling report from CoinShares shed light on a major trend—nearly half a billion dollars were retracted from cryptocurrency products over a nine-week period ending in mid-September. Bitcoin, as usual, was at the epicenter, accounting for a substantial 85% of these outflows.
Market Speculations & Future Prospects: As the month came to an end, discussions ranged from the potential impact of a U.S. government shutdown on Bitcoin’s trajectory to speculations about Bitcoin ETFs spurring fresh waves of demand.
In summary, September was undeniably dynamic for the crypto sector. As the industry continues to mature, all eyes will remain on regulatory moves, market trends, and the macroeconomic factors that might shape the future trajectory of digital assets.
2) Where do we stand?
The realm of blockchain technology continues its rapid metamorphosis, bringing transformative change to industries far and wide. This week, we dive deep into its multifaceted impacts and the trajectory it’s carving for various sectors.
Space Exploration and Blockchain’s New Frontier:
NASA’s collaboration with Lonestar and the Isle of Man marks an ambitious effort to utilize blockchain technology beyond our planet. By introducing blockchain-verified data storage on the Moon by 2024, NASA is aiming to tackle not just technological challenges but also societal ones. This move aims to provide undeniable proof of their Artemis 3 crewed landing in 2025, making a definitive statement against lunar mission skeptics.
Hospitality’s Blockchain Revolution:
Back on Earth, the hospitality sector isn’t left behind. Sleap.io is at the forefront, reshaping the way we approach travel. This Web3 hotel booking platform is breaking traditional molds, using blockchain for unparalleled personalization and cost savings. With an upcoming integration of AI in 2024, Sleap.io promises an enhanced, seamless user experience.
Air Travel’s Decentralized Shift:
It’s not just hotels. Major airlines, including industry heavyweights like Lufthansa and Etihad, are embarking on the blockchain journey. With the global hospitality market gearing up to reach an impressive $5.8 trillion by 2027, it’s evident that blockchain is not just a trend but a pivotal axis on which the future of the travel industry rotates.
Regulatory Landscapes and their Implications:
However, innovation doesn’t come without its challenges. The U.S. SEC’s recent move to delay decisions on Bitcoin ETFs for market leaders signals potential shifts and uncertainties. This decision, especially on the backdrop of potential governmental changes, poses questions and implications that the crypto community needs to be prepared for.
Ethereum: A Beacon of Digital Transformation:
One can’t discuss blockchain without acknowledging Ethereum’s monumental growth trajectory. Its rapid revenue milestones, strong market positioning, and an innovative approach to decentralizing internet infrastructure highlight its significance. With dominant market shares and strategic alliances with major corporations like Ernst & Young, Ethereum is poised to redefine business ecosystems and set unprecedented standards.
Blockchain for Transparent Supply Chains:
Beyond currency and data, blockchain technology promises transparent traceability. Peroni Beer’s initiative is a testament to this. Utilizing Ethereum, they ensure that every beer enthusiast can trace their beverage’s journey right from the malt’s origin to the drink in their hand. This transformative application of blockchain augments consumer trust and offers a tangible sense of authenticity.
Regulatory Complexities in Crypto:
On the legal front, the SEC and Binance.US tussle underscores the complexities blockchain and cryptocurrency enterprises face. Balancing innovation with regulation is a nuanced challenge, and the ongoing litigation between these entities brings this to the forefront.
Towards a Sustainable Digital Future:
The intersection of blockchain and sustainability offers a silver lining. With over half of Bitcoin’s energy now hailing from renewable sources, there’s optimism in addressing environmental concerns related to digital technologies. Platforms like CUDOS, which prioritize green solutions for AI and cloud computing, exemplify how innovation can align with sustainability.
Unraveling the Crypto Wealth Landscape:
Henley & Partners’ recent insights provide a fascinating glimpse into the world of crypto wealth. With a diverse range of investors from billionaires to Gen Z enthusiasts, the global shift toward digital currencies is evident. However, public sentiment remains mixed, emphasizing the need for robust education and transparent communication in the crypto domain.
As we stand at this juncture, the intertwining of blockchain with various industries signifies the dawn of a new era. Whether it’s space exploration, hospitality, or sustainable solutions, decentralized technologies are carving out the future. Stay with us as we navigate this transformative journey, bringing you insights, updates, and deep dives.
3) On Chain Data:
LINK Climbs New Heights
Among the top market performers, Chainlink’s token, LINK, is shining brightly, experiencing a growth spurt of 3% daily and an impressive 15% weekly. Breaching the $8 threshold, it marks a two-month high for the digital asset.
Not to be left behind, Ripple maintains its positive trend, priced over $0.5, reflecting a 1.5% uptick. LEO too isn’t far behind, with a 2% jump placing it close to $1.7. However, it’s not all green; larger-cap altcoins like Ethereum, Binance Coin, and others face slight declines.
Chainlink (LINK) Whales Wallet Balances vs. Price | Source: IntoTheBlock
Bitcoin’s Subtle Movements
At a cursory glance, Bitcoin’s movement since late August might seem stagnant, with its value barely shifting from around $28,142. This minute 0.5% rise might seem inconsequential, especially when compared to traditionally stable Forex pairs like EUR/USD. But, that’s a deceptive perspective.
In September alone, Bitcoin witnessed a dip below $25k, followed by a 10% recovery close to $27,500. This fluctuation was anticipated by Elliott Wave analysis, which predicted the likelihood of a five-wave impulse trend from the $31,818 drop.
Traders leveraging the Elliott Wave theory could have spotted significant trading opportunities during these fluctuations. With this approach, Bitcoin’s movement was anything but boring.
Ethereum ETF: The Next Big Thing?
Ethereum, with a robust market cap of $200.364 billion, is currently priced at $1,666. Reports are rife with speculations of an impending Ethereum Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) launch. If the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission gives its nod, it’ll be the inaugural ETH futures ETF in the U.S.
However, regulatory approval processes are ongoing, with decisions on ARK 21Shares Ethereum ETF and VanEck Ethereum ETF being postponed to the end of 2023. Market signals for Ethereum remain bullish, given its recent price breakout and favorable RSI metrics.
FLR: The imminent FLR airdrop on October 13, 2023, might induce a price drop, given the consistent historical pattern around airdrop events.
Optimism (OP): Priced at $1.37, Optimism is paving the way to decentralize its network further by potentially establishing a Security Council. The outcome of this will be determined by a vote on October 12.
Hedera (HBAR): Hedera’s community meeting, “Hello Future,” scheduled for October 6-8, promises exciting updates and may drive interest in the HBAR token.
Radiant (RXD): With its Mainnet set to launch on the Ethereum network on October 3, Radiant seeks to enhance the incentive model for Ethereum’s stablecoins.
Arbitrum (ARB): ARB’s on-chain data suggests a potential price surge in October 2023, with the token’s price predicted to hit the $1.50 mark. This forecast is backed by an increase in whale investments and rising network activity.
Whales Wallet Balances | Source: Santiment
Whales Making Waves in the Crypto Sea
Crypto whales, or large-scale investors, have been strategically leveraging the market’s ebbs and flows, particularly in the wake of significant macro events. Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is a notable example, experiencing a surge in value, largely driven by whale investments.
Chainlink (LINK) is also on the whale radar, given its recent price rally. The coming weeks will reveal if these heavy investments yield the anticipated returns.
On-chain data provides invaluable insights into the market’s direction. From the subtle price movements of Bitcoin to Ethereum’s potential ETF launch and the investment strategies of crypto whales, understanding this data can be a game-changer for both short-term traders and long-term investors. In the unpredictable waters of the crypto market, on-chain analytics serve as a reliable compass, guiding stakeholders toward informed decisions.
4) What Could Happen?
October is shaping up to be a defining month in the crypto world. The buzz started when Bitcoin’s price took a significant leap, surpassing the $28,000 mark for the first time since August 17. This unexpected Sunday evening surge saw the digital currency quickly jump by $800 around 6:30 pm ET, according to CoinGecko data. Notably, this movement coincided with the liquidation of short orders worth nearly $47.4 million in the futures market, 90% of which was from short orders. Such a scenario suggests that this boost was possibly fueled by a short squeeze in the futures market.
Ethereum (ETH), another significant player in the crypto market, wasn’t left behind. It scaled past $1,700 for the first time in five weeks, triggering the liquidation of futures orders worth $28 million due to its price ascent. Within 24 hours, the combined market capitalization of crypto tokens expanded by 3.3%, an increment of roughly $37 billion, totaling $1.16 trillion.
Other notable contributors to the market’s dynamics include Solana (SOL), which registered significant liquidations worth $5.92 million and saw a growth of 13.5% overnight among the top 100 crypto tokens by market cap. Top gainers, besides Solana, over the day included Thorchain (RUNE), Bitcoin SV (BSV), and Render (RNDR) tokens.
Additionally, outside the realm of cryptocurrency, the global market experienced a boost in sentiment, possibly due to the U.S. government’s success in averting a shutdown by extending its funding for another 45 days. As a testament to this, the U.S. stock market futures began October on a positive note, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq index reflecting upward trajectories.
There’s more in the offing: VanEck is reportedly launching the first futures Ethereum ETF, a move that’s expected to further amplify the optimistic sentiment in the market.
Historically, Bitcoin’s price has consistently surged in October, with only a few exceptions. Yet, while the cryptocurrency’s price may appear stable since late August, its journey has been anything but dull. September witnessed a fall to under $25,000 and a subsequent recovery to nearly $27,500. These fluctuations, some experts argue, can be attributed to the Elliott Wave theory.
Meanwhile, legal proceedings involving the founder of FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried, have begun. Charged with multiple crimes, including fraud and conspiracy, this trial could cast a shadow on the crypto industry. Amidst this, industry experts like Kavita Gupta and Kenny Estes emphasize the importance of regulatory clarity and the potential risks looming over platforms like Binance.
The coming days will also spotlight important economic events, from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments to the release of the U.S. Labor Department’s September jobs report, both of which could influence the volatility in the crypto market.
While October has traditionally seen Bitcoin thrive, this year has deviated from established patterns. Whether this means a bullish or bearish October remains to be seen. Still, with Ethereum potentially launching its Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF) and several other altcoins poised for significant events, this October promises to be eventful.
In conclusion, while October has historically been favorable for Bitcoin, 2023 has presented unique patterns, suggesting that investors should tread with caution. The ever-evolving nature of the crypto market means that dynamics can change rapidly, underscoring the importance of informed decision-making. As always, consulting a financial advisor before making any significant investments is prudent.
Disclaimer: All material in this market study, including the thoughts and opinions expressed in it, has been supplied in good faith. Readers must conduct their own due diligence and research. The reader solely assumes all risk for whatever action they may take.
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